runed scarlet rubies are a girl’s best friend
June 13, 2009
I see I’ve got a lot of visitors over the last day or so from here. The author of that post has come up with a simple but interesting datamining idea – producing a consolidated list of the most popular gems to aid people playing the AH.
Unfortunately it isn’t really correct to add the percentage values in my tables since they are relative measures designed to show what is popular by spec. But the population in each class/spec combination varies wildly which make it impossible to go from that to a general count.
However, your humble dataminer stands ready to help with questions like this. I ran a query on gems across the overall sample and came up with the following list. The numbers are the total count of each gem and for comparison’s sake there are 171,148 characters in this sample who have at least one gem. I’ve chopped the table off at 5000, but the list goes all the way down to various cuts of shattered and opaque Dark Jade which are worn by one toon only in the sample.
Be aware that this is not a random sample – it is biased with a lot of higher level twinks, who could be expected to be gemmed up to the gills. But since twinking players are ones most happy to splash the cash, maybe that is no bad thing.
| Runed Scarlet Ruby | 67720 |
| Solid Sky Sapphire | 50331 |
| Bold Scarlet Ruby | 39622 |
| Rigid Autumn’s Glow | 27453 |
| Balanced Twilight Opal | 26209 |
| Delicate Scarlet Ruby | 20147 |
| Smooth Autumn’s Glow | 18689 |
| Chaotic Skyflare Diamond | 17878 |
| Bright Scarlet Ruby | 16895 |
| Brilliant Autumn’s Glow | 14784 |
| Runed Bloodstone | 13025 |
| Potent Monarch Topaz | 11621 |
| Bold Bloodstone | 11099 |
| Sovereign Twilight Opal | 10407 |
| Pristine Monarch Topaz | 10371 |
| Luminous Monarch Topaz | 10257 |
| Sparkling Sky Sapphire | 9610 |
| Glowing Twilight Opal | 9414 |
| Purified Twilight Opal | 8304 |
| Relentless Earthsiege Diamond | 8057 |
| Enduring Forest Emerald | 8049 |
| Veiled Monarch Topaz | 7508 |
| Deadly Monarch Topaz | 7491 |
| Vivid Forest Emerald | 7483 |
| Runed Dragon’s Eye | 7376 |
| Royal Twilight Opal | 7337 |
| Thick Autumn’s Glow | 7069 |
| Austere Earthsiege Diamond | 7066 |
| Solid Chalcedony | 6857 |
| Ember Skyflare Diamond | 6604 |
| Dazzling Forest Emerald | 6482 |
| Glowing Nightseye | 6344 |
| Bold Dragon’s Eye | 6100 |
| Steady Forest Emerald | 6072 |
| Smooth Sun Crystal | 5793 |
| Inscribed Monarch Topaz | 5724 |
| Jagged Forest Emerald | 5701 |
| Perfect Runed Bloodstone | 5658 |
| Regal Twilight Opal | 5332 |
| Reckless Monarch Topaz | 5136 |
| Kharmaa’s Grace | 5116 |
Let me say I’m right with you on questions about the WoW economy. The AH is one of the more inspired minigames in WoW. It’s a sort of non-zero-sum PvP where skill actually counts for something and you can’t twink your way to stardom. Even with Auctioneer, you still have to think about what the data is telling you. So, I’ve added consolidated reports to my to-do list. Anybody with other suggestions for reports that have an economic focus is welcome to leave a comment.
the median is the message
June 2, 2009
Over at Wowenomics, Gevlon from the Greedy Goblin left a comment about datamining that is worth replying to. Basically, his point is that sites like this one report on what the average player is doing, but that is not much use because the average player is only making average choices. (…or at least that’s the polite paraphrase of his point.)
In fact the data shows that this sort of argument is not true. Let’s start from what the data actually looks like. Here, I’ve taken an example picked at random: all choices made by 69 DKs for the chest slot:
| Item | Count |
| Mightstone Breastplate | 2421 |
| Battlemaster’s Breastplate | 1010 |
| Scavenged Tirasian Plate | 996 |
| Adamantite Breastplate | 898 |
| Murkblood Avenger’s Chestplate | 655 |
| Gorge’s Breastplate of Bloodrage | 309 |
| Battle Leader’s Breastplate | 208 |
| Saronite War Plate | 197 |
| Fel Iron Breastplate | 141 |
| Unscarred Breastplate | 136 |
| Westguard Armor | 78 |
| Coldrock Breastplate | 75 |
| Azure Chain Hauberk | 71 |
| Durotan’s Battle Harness | 70 |
| Baleheim Armor | 68 |
| Light-Touched Breastplate | 63 |
| Breastplate of the Warbringer | 48 |
| Andrethan’s Masterwork | 46 |
| Bone-Threaded Harness | 44 |
| Segmented Breastplate | 32 |
| Conqueror’s Breastplate | 30 |
| Blacksoul Protector’s Hauberk | 26 |
| Bloodfist Breastplate | 23 |
| Chestguard of Illumination | 21 |
| Nether Protector’s Chest | 21 |
| Vest of Vengeance | 21 |
| Soul Saver’s Chest Plate | 21 |
| Scavenged Breastplate | 18 |
| Chestguard of Salved Wounds | 18 |
| Breastplate of Blade Turning | 18 |
| Light-Bound Chestguard | 17 |
| Warmaul Breastplate | 17 |
| Breastplate of Retribution | 15 |
| Blackened Chestplate | 15 |
| Boulderfist Armor | 14 |
| Heavy Earthforged Breastplate | 14 |
| Shattered Hand Breastplate | 12 |
| Talonguard Armor | 12 |
| Reaver Armor | 11 |
| The Exarch’s Protector | 9 |
| Lost Chestplate of the Reverent | 8 |
| Bloodscale Breastplate | 8 |
| Gilded Crimson Chestplate | 7 |
| Chestplate of A’dal | 7 |
| Jerkin of the Untamed Spirit | 7 |
| Khan’aish Breastplate | 7 |
| Redeemer’s Plate | 7 |
| Torn-heart Family Tunic | 7 |
| Protectorate Breastplate | 6 |
| Marshwalker Chestpiece | 4 |
| Bogslayer Breastplate | 4 |
| Demon-Forged Chestguard | 4 |
| Warden’s Hauberk | 4 |
| Shamblehide Chestguard | 3 |
| Garmaul Chestpiece | 3 |
| Elegant Dress | 2 |
| Crimson Mail Hauberk | 2 |
| Cenarion Thicket Jerkin | 2 |
| Ango’rosh Breastplate | 2 |
| Azure Silk Vest | 1 |
| Acherus Knight’s Tunic | 1 |
| Black Mageweave Vest | 1 |
| Bonechewer Berserker’s Vest | 1 |
| Corsair’s Overshirt | 1 |
| Darkcrest Breastplate | 1 |
| Demon-Forged Hauberk | 1 |
| Drakescale Breastplate | 1 |
| Breastplate of Many Graces | 1 |
| Chestguard of the Dark Stalker | 1 |
| Chestguard of the Stormspire | 1 |
| Chestguard of the Talon | 1 |
| Farshire Robe | 1 |
| Flimsy Chain Vest | 1 |
| Lovely Black Dress | 1 |
| Lovely Blue Dress | 1 |
| Simple Black Dress | 1 |
| Skom Chain Vest | 1 |
| Scale Brand Breastplate | 1 |
| Refuge Armor | 1 |
| Runecloth Robe | 1 |
| Nexus-Strider Breastplate | 1 |
| Spring Robes | 1 |
| Tuxedo Jacket | 1 |
| Twilight Cultist Robe | 1 |
| Warrior’s Embrace | 1 |
| Worgblood Berserker’s Hauberk | 1 |
| Wrathfin Armor | 1 |
It’s worth charting this distribution too, since the shape of the distribution curve is important:
69 DK chest items - distribution.
69 DK item distribution - log scale
The error in Gevlon’s argument stems from our common-sense understanding of average. Most often we think in terms of a Gaussian distribution – so often that it is actually called a normal distribution. When events or things are distributed normally, then the average outcome is, well, average. But, as various people have observed, when networking effects come into the picture, the typical distribution is not Gaussian but power-law-like. The majority cluster around a very few choices, with a rapid fall-off into a long tail of more funky choices but where each choice in the long tail made by only a few individuals.
Now WTF does all that mean in plain English? Simple. If WoW gear, gems or enchant choices were normally distributed, a few people would make the best choice, a few people would make the worst choice and most would make a so-so choice. We would expect to see a few 69 DKs with the Uber Breastplate of Pwnage, a few with the Scruffy Tunic of Suckage, but most would be wearing the Mediocre Breastplate of, um…, Mediocrity. And that’s what my report would find for you.
But you can see from the charts that the data looks nothing like a normal distribution. Most players have in fact made the same few choices – which generally represent a trade-off between how powerful the item is and how easy it is to get hold of. Those people who don’t follow the crowd are out in the long tail – here the picture is murky because we don’t know whether they are there because of ignorance or whether they have hit on some effective but as-yet unknown (or difficult to obtain) solution to the problem. (And some are out there because the data is capturing multiple playstyles – no doubt those toons wearing tuxedo jackets and lovely blue dresses are being played by people who know exactly what they are doing.)
But for our purposes, averages are just what we want – they show the consenus view across the player base on what are the reasonably sensible and effective choices.
To me, the interesting question is how this consensus forms. Undoubtedly Gevlon’s point has an element of truth – the average WoW player is no theorycrafter. But there are feedback mechanisms that shape their choices. They have the game itself. And they have instant access to the collective wisdom of the player-borg’s vast hive mind thanks to all the commentary and guides here in cyberspace. It is these network effects that make the distribution take the shape that it has.
minority report
May 11, 2009
Once again it’s time for our check on where the latest patches have left class balance. This is the state of play at level 80, post 3.1.1:
| Class | Popularity |
| Death Knights | 15.0% |
| Paladin | 14.2% |
| Druid | 10.3% |
| Warrior | 9.7% |
| Mage | 9.6% |
| Priest | 9.5% |
| Hunter | 9.3% |
| Shaman | 7.6% |
| Rogue | 7.3% |
| Warlock | 7.3% |
As you can see, the trends we noted last time have not been reversed. The only new thing here is that another class – the rogue – has joined warlocks on the Azeroth endangered species list. This is offset by the rise of the druid as the hybrid class of choice a popular hybrid class and the continued enthusiasm for paladins and DKs.
moar content plz?
May 8, 2009
Things are progressing nicely here. My scanner is past the 100K character mark – just a bit behind where I’d hoped to be by now. All the new glyph and enchant pages are up. I’ll refresh them at the end of the scan when I have a bigger data set.
And as always, the raw data has interesting things to say. What struck me this time is how many characters are piled up at level 80. Here’s the chart:
You can compare that with the distribution at the beginning of the year. The logjam of level 70s has been cleared, which means people have taken most of their alts to 80. Of course that begs the question – what next when you’ve got all your toons to 8o?
I must admit that this raises a design issue that I have never understood. Why does Blizz downplay the levelling experience so much? Some of my fondest memories in the game are instance runs through some of the mid level content like Blackfathom Deeps. A bit challenging for a leveling character and with plenty of lively, fun fights. There is so much content in old Azeroth that has been devalued by the changes since BC.
True, a lot of it is just kill-10-rats quests, but surely it would be easier to beef up that content than create complete new zones. A few creative writers to add new questlines with a bit of variety and challenge must be gazillions of dollars cheaper than the army of artists needed to work up a whole new continent.
Update:
It’s worth saying that this chart puts the dual specs data in a different light too. In my post on that subject, I said that the take-up of dual specs was lower than I was expecting. A commenter pointed out that I didn’t seem to have taken alts into account. Well, I had, sorta… I thought that most alts were still back in the 70-79 range and weren’t being counted in my sample.
LOL! I can see that that assumption was, like, so totally February 2009… It’s clear now that the commenter was quite right. If about 50% of all level 80s have dual specs, as they do, then everybody’s main has them, statistically speaking at least. And a good few alts as well.
