These are the correct figures on dual spec adoption. The mistake in the original post was mine (those left outer joins will get you every time) and not a fault of the armoury. The sample size is small, so the sampling error may be large, but the general patternĀ  is clear enough from these numbers.

Sample size: 30K level 80s who have been played since 3.1. Choices below 2% are not shown.

Class
Specs
Popularity
Death Knight Frost and Unholy 10%
Death Knight Blood and Frost 8%
Death Knight Blood and Unholy 7%
Death Knight Two of Frost 3%
Death Knight Two of Unholy 3%
Death Knight One Unholy 28%
Death Knight One Blood 21%
Death Knight One Frost 17%
Druid Balance and Restoration 23%
Druid Feral Combat and Restoration 18%
Druid Balance and Feral Combat 5%
Druid Two of Feral Combat 7%
Druid One Restoration 16%
Druid One Feral Combat 14%
Druid One Balance 13%
Hunter Beast Mastery and Survival 10%
Hunter Marksmanship and Survival 7%
Hunter Beast Mastery and Marksmanship 3%
Hunter Two of Survival 5%
Hunter One Survival 42%
Hunter One Beast Mastery 21%
Hunter One Marksmanship 12%
Mage Arcane and Fire 11%
Mage Fire and Frost 11%
Mage Arcane and Frost 8%
Mage Two of Fire 3%
Mage One Fire 29%
Mage One Arcane 22%
Mage One Frost 15%
Paladin Holy and Retribution 19%
Paladin Protection and Retribution 16%
Paladin Holy and Protection 11%
Paladin One Retribution 21%
Paladin One Holy 16%
Paladin One Protection 13%
Priest Holy and Shadow 26%
Priest Discipline and Holy 12%
Priest Discipline and Shadow 11%
Priest One Holy 22%
Priest One Shadow 16%
Priest One Discipline 8%
Rogue Assassination and Combat 15%
Rogue Combat and Subtlety 5%
Rogue Two of Assassination 9%
Rogue One Combat 32%
Rogue One Assassination 28%
Rogue One Subtlety 7%
Shaman Elemental and Restoration 28%
Shaman Enhancement and Restoration 18%
Shaman Elemental and Enhancement 4%
Shaman Two of Restoration 3%
Shaman One Elemental 15%
Shaman One Enhancement 15%
Shaman One Restoration 15%
Warlock Affliction and Demonology 12%
Warlock Affliction and Destruction 8%
Warlock Demonology and Destruction 8%
Warlock Two of Demonology 3%
Warlock One Demonology 26%
Warlock One Affliction 22%
Warlock One Destruction 16%
Warrior Arms and Protection 18%
Warrior Fury and Protection 16%
Warrior Arms and Fury 6%
Warrior Two of Arms 3%
Warrior One Protection 25%
Warrior One Fury 15%
Warrior One Arms 14%

Oddly enough, my conclusions are exactly the same as last time despite the different numbers:

  • Take-up of dual specs is much lower than I was expecting. I published figures a while back which showed that 30% of level 80s did all three of PvE raiding, BG PvPing and Arena PvPing and the vast majority of level 80s did at least some mixture of PvE and PvP. I would have thought that anybody who did PvE and PvP would want two specs – which basically means everybody.
    Perhaps people are waiting for the talent-resetting patches to stop. Perhaps the need to lay down the one large (in the Tony Soprano sense) is holding people back. Or maybe it is just too early to see where this feature is going to take us.
  • The most enthusiastic adopters of dual specs are players who want a DPS-and-support combination, where “support” means tanking or healing. Nothing surprising there. Take-up amongst the pure DPS classes is lower on the whole. So only 25% of hunters have a dual spec but 50% of druids do.
  • One limitation of my data is that I can’t yet sort the actual builds into raid and PvP builds. If I could do that, the picture we see here might be a bit different. An interesting question is what pure DPS classes are doing with dual specs. There seems to be two alternatives: a) having the off-spec as a spec-in-test and b) having a PvE and PvP DPS spec. So when we see that a warlock has two demonology builds, that could just mean that they are testing the second build or that they are trying to run as demonology in two different areas of the game. I’m still working on a solution to identifying builds by their intended role so I can get an answer to this question.
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Azeroth’s got talent

October 25, 2008

I finally have a way of presenting talent builds that I’m reasonably happy with. But the presentation is a bit… um… complex… sigh… Maybe too complex; I’m not sure. Perhaps you could help me out by having a look at the tables here and telling me whether studying them has lead you to:

  1. enlightenment
  2. befuddlement
  3. a migrane
  4. all three

Anyway here we go…

(Caution: the examples here are from pre-patch-3.0.2 data.)

We start with the basic x/y/z builds for a class and their relative popularity. For example the most popular level 70 priest build is 20/41/0 at about 14%. So we want to know what actual talents are used in that build. And we want to know how many points the average 20/41/0 priest puts into each talent (what I will call the points “spend”). That is, not everyone puts 5 points into a 5-point talent.

So for every popular build, we want a table with these columns:

Tree Tier Talent Popularity Spends

There will be some variation across these columns. 20/41/0 is just three sums and within the 20 and the 41, priests have made various decisions around a basic group of talents.

The most simple case is when there is consensus around a talent. For example, the vast majority of 20/41/0 priests take Unbreakable Will as a tier 1 discipline talent. So we get this:

Tree Tier Talent Popularity Spends
Discipline 1 Unbreakable Will 97% 5 of 5: 98%

Only 3% of 20/41/0 priests don’t take Unbreakable Will. Of the 97% who do take it, only 2% of them don’t put the full 5 points into it. Capische?

Then we have talents where there is less of a consensus.

For example the tier 5 Holy talent Healing Prayers is taken by only 39% of 20/41/0 priests. And those that do take it are split about how many points it deserves: just over half think it is worth the full two points and just under half think that it is only worth 1 point. So we get a line like this:

Tree Tier Talent Popularity Spends
Holy 5 Healing Prayers 39% 2 of 2: 59% 1 of 2: 41%

These lines by themselves are not overwhelming; it’s when they all come together that we get information overload. Note that only talents and spends taken by at least 10% of the sample are shown, otherwise the table would be beyond comprehension.

Here is the full analysis for the 20/41/0 pre-3.0.2 priest: Behold!

Tree Tier Talent Popularity Spends
Discipline 1 Unbreakable Will 97% 5 of 5: 98%
Discipline 2 Improved Power Word: Fortitude 94% 2 of 2: 99%
Discipline 2 Silent Resolve 88% 4 of 5: 46% 5 of 5: 34% 1 of 5: 12%
Discipline 2 Improved Power Word: Shield 34% 3 of 3: 90% 1 of 3: 10%
Discipline 3 Meditation 99% 3 of 3: 99%
Discipline 3 Inner Focus 94% 1 of 1: 100%
Discipline 3 Absolution 21% 1 of 3: 80% 2 of 3: 13%
Discipline 4 Mental Agility 94% 5 of 5: 78% 4 of 5: 13%
Holy 1 Improved Renew 99% 3 of 3: 99%
Holy 1 Holy Specialization 91% 5 of 5: 59% 3 of 5: 16% 2 of 5: 15%
Holy 1 Healing Focus 89% 2 of 2: 97%
Holy 2 Divine Fury 95% 5 of 5: 97%
Holy 2 Spell Warding 11% 5 of 5: 63% 2 of 5: 19%
Holy 3 Inspiration 87% 3 of 3: 89%
Holy 3 Holy Nova 23% 1 of 1: 100%
Holy 4 Improved Healing 99% 3 of 3: 99%
Holy 4 Holy Reach 75% 2 of 2: 93%
Holy 5 Spiritual Guidance 98% 5 of 5: 94%
Holy 5 Spirit of Redemption 94% 1 of 1: 100%
Holy 5 Healing Prayers 39% 2 of 2: 59% 1 of 2: 41%
Holy 6 Spiritual Healing 100% 5 of 5: 99%
Holy 7 Holy Concentration 92% 3 of 3: 91%
Holy 7 Lightwell 15% 1 of 1: 100%
Holy 8 Empowered Healing 100% 5 of 5: 96%
Holy 9 Circle of Healing 99% 1 of 1: 100%

Still with me? Please do take a second and tell me if a table like that is genuinely useful. If it isn’t, I’m happy to have another go at the problem.

patch 3.0.2 talent builds

October 20, 2008

… can be found here.

It will be a little while before I do another armoury scan; I want to wait for the data to settle down a bit first. Sorry! But there is a site that is doing some early amoury scanning for the new talent builds – which is exactly what you need now. I’ve linked to it in ‘Other Data Miners’ to your right or just click on the link in this post.